Quick answer

CPI day, same model as every other day. Bullish SMT between NQ and YM at the open, then the 30-minute CPI gap on NQ as the buy zone. 60 points caught on NQ with about 6 points of drawdown.

Introduction

CPI day is when most retail traders get destroyed. The data prints, price slingshots in both directions, stops get hunted, and people give back a week of profits in 20 minutes. I trade it the same as any other day.

Same model. Same pieces. The only thing that changes is which index gives me the cleanest SMT signal. On news days I lean on YM as a third reference. This breakdown covers a 60-point catch on NQ with about 6 points of drawdown.

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This is the setup right here. Like I said, all my videos that I've posted so far on this, you guys notice it's the exact same setup repeating over and over and over and over and over again.

”Kevin Dhesi · @dhesi_trades

The Bias Going In

CPI printed in the morning. NQ had a huge displacement up, then consolidated into the open. While NQ was chopping, YM and ES had already taken out their data highs. NQ hadn't.

That mismatch is bearish SMT, early in the morning. So I was looking for a move down into the 30-minute CPI gap, which was also a higher-timeframe FVG sitting as my buy zone.

Why The 30-Minute FVG Mattered

The CPI release left a clean 30-minute fair value gap. That's a higher-timeframe imbalance that the market would want to mitigate before the next leg. I wasn't shorting into the gap. I was waiting for the tap, then looking for the long.

Figure 1The setup: tap into the 30-min CPI gap, 5-min inversion confirms the long, target the daily high.
Dhesi Trades

The YM SMT Was The Tell

When NQ took out the 8:40 low, ES had already taken out the same low. No SMT between ES and NQ. So I checked YM. YM did NOT take its corresponding low. That's bullish SMT against the YM index. That gave me the confirmation I needed.

This is why YM matters on news days. When ES and NQ are both reacting to the same data print, they often move in lockstep. YM moves a little differently and gives you the divergence read you can't get from ES/NQ alone.

Entry On The 5-Minute

I usually wait for the 1-minute inversion, but this one I took on the 5-minute. Price was moving with speed, the structure was so clean, and the risk-reward was already there. I didn't need to wait for a deeper retest.

Both NQ and ES inverted the bearish gap on the 5-minute close. I entered. Stop at the 1-minute PD array below. Targets at the equal highs and the daily high.

Figure 2NQ takes out the 8:40 low. YM doesn't. That's the SMT signature on a CPI day. YM is the third reference that saves the read.
Dhesi Trades

The Rules I Trade By

CPI Day Setup. Execution Checklist
  1. Mark the news-day FVG on the higher timeframe (15-min, 30-min, hourly).
  2. Wait for price to tap into that FVG. Don't chase the initial move.
  3. Confirm SMT on ES vs NQ. If they're matched, check YM as the third reference.
  4. Drop to 1-min or 5-min for the inversion trigger.
  5. Both indices must inverse the gap together on the same candle close.
  6. Enter at the close. Stop at the 1-minute PD array below.
  7. Target #1: nearest equal highs/lows. Target #2: data highs from the news release.
  8. Use tighter sizing. News-day spreads are wider, slippage is real.

When NOT To Trade News Days

  • You're inside the first 5 minutes of the release. Spreads are too wide, stops are meaningless.
  • No higher timeframe FVG nearby. News-day moves without HTF context equal chop.
  • Both ES and NQ in lockstep with no SMT anywhere. Including YM. If all three are matched, you have no edge.
  • You're already up money for the day. Don't risk a green session on an extra news trade.
  • You haven't traded news days before. Paper trade them first. The volatility is real.

The Bottom Line

The 60-point trade isn't special. It's the same model. 30-min FVG, SMT (with YM as the reference on news days), 5-minute inversion. Same pieces. Same order. Different day.

I caught a piece of the 60. The market kept running another 300 points after my exit. I'm fine with catching pieces. You don't have to catch the whole move. You just have to catch the same setup, over and over, with defined risk.

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You need one model to be profitable. Master that model. I have mastered this model. This is my go-to bread-and-butter setup, and it provides me with results like this.

”Kevin Dhesi